Not everyone sold on Soldat. To Honor got what he needed? Gotham field comes into focus. Rankings shuffled. Blazing works out West.

Summary:

Joe Drape at the New York Times expounds on Bill Mott’s old-school training technique with To Honor and Serve and why we shouldn’t be concerned with his third place finish.  However, even Mott admits he wasn’t expecting To Honor to come up that short, which makes the Florida Derby all the more interesting//  Speaking of the Florida Derby, it seems to be the next spot for Soldat, To Honor, and Sweet Ducky while Gourmet Dinner could be headed to the easier West division//Steve Haskin believes Soldat’s action better on turf// Several new rankings released with a lot more variance on who’s #2// Blazing works out West// Gotham up next…

Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty go toe-to-toe. Beyer numbers released. Next race plans announced for several.

Summary:

Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty worked in tandem and both fired bullets.  Once again Stay Thirsty continues to match or one-up Mo// Beyer numbers were released: Soldat 96, Flashpoint 102. A little surprised Soldat didn’t break 100, especially considering the competition and the final time was two seconds faster than the earlier allowance.  I do realize there’s a lot more that goes into it// I thought (and read) more about To Honor and Serve.  It’s pretty simple: He ran like a horse that hasn’t raced since November and only had six 5 furlong workouts.  Why should I have expected another romp? Can’t wait for the next.

Soldat all that// Can Flashpoint go the distance?// What to make of the ungraders?

Summary:

So, how do we sort it all out?// Soldat was dominating and proved himself as the real deal, that’s easy… but To Honor and Serve? Did he need the race or is he regressing from 2YO form? Or, did he just not face much in 2010 (yes I’m not forgetting Macho)?// How excited should we be for Flashpoint, at least for the Derby?  Can a horse bred for one turn take it to two?// What to make of the ungraded races- Borderland, Gentilly, Rainbow, Turf Paradise, Miracle Wood? I don’t see anything to get excited about// Does Arch Traveler have enough time to catch up?//

Day of questions: How cranked up will To Honor And Serve be?// Will Crossbow scratch?// Will Dialed In and Uncle Mo meet March 12?

Summary:

Today’s Kentucky Derby Trail news was of the vague and “possible” variety. Typical on the eve of big races// Crossbow may scratch tomorrow in the Hutcheson////To Honor and Serve does not necessarily have to win the Fountain of Youth.  That leaves us handicappers to wonder how cranked up he’ll be// Timely Writer Stakes a possibility for Dialed In (which would mean two top five Kentucky Derby contenders would square off in an ungraded race in March… crazy)//

Entries:

A link to free PP’s, articles, video, and handicapper picks for tomorrows graded Fountain of Youth and Hutcheson can be found here

Articles:

·       In Fountain of Youth, hope springs eternal (NY Times)

Odds set for Fountain of Youth and Hutcheson// Spotlight shifts to Soldat, other preps// Handicapper picks//

Summary:

While To Honor and Serve grabbed all of the headlines yesterday, it was the second favorite Soldat with the most today.  After watching some of the PP video (here by the way) I’m still more excited to see To Honor.  I’m not sure I’ve seen a horse move with the same action.  He almost looks like a gazelle and seems to do it with very little effort// Maiden winner Travelin’ Man is the morning line favorite for the Huthcheson.  Surprising considering he’s not even on some contender lists// Other races picked up some ink too: Borderland Derby, Miracle Wood, Turf Paradise Derby, and the allowance on the undercard at Gulfstream.  For some reason, I’m just not excited about those and don’t see a legitimate Derby contender emerging//

Upcoming Races:

The upcoming page is chock full of info for the Fountain of Youth and Hutcheson.  Links to free PP’s, videos, articles, picks, etc.  Check it out here

Articles:

·       To Honor and Serve makes first of two Derby preps in FOY (DRF)

·       Soldat taking next step toward Derby (Bloodhorse)

·       Timing’s right for Soldat (Gulfstream Park News)

·       Soldat renews Derby dream for McLaughlin (DRF)

·       Pick the finishers in Fountain Of Youth (Bloodhorse)

To Honor And Serve gets all the attention in Fountain of Youth, Gourmet Dinner ready, Hutcheson should be hot, more on past weekend runners

Summary:

The Fountain of Youth drew 8 entries, including #2 CTD Ranked To Honor and Serve.  Can’t wait to see his 3YO form against some promising up-and-comers.  Gourmet Dinner fires a bullet for it as well// The Hutcheson is also looking like an interesting race with a mix contestants either cutting back in distance or moving up in class.  I have a sneaky feeling one of Pletcher’s will make a statement// Yesterday’s decision on racing Uncle Mo in the new Timely Writer continues to be debated//

Entries:

Fountain Of Youth and Hutcheson Stakes entries, videos, articles and a link to PPs can be found here

Borderland Derby entries can be found here

Uncle Mo takes the easy route for now, Bind definitely out, next race plans for The Factor, Mucho, more

Summary:

Uncle Mo will go the easier (and closer) route in the Timely Writer. Lots of opinions out there, but as I’ve said they’re doing what they think is best for Mo in March// 89 Beyer for Archarcharch.  83 for Alternation in his allowance win//NBC will carry all three Triple Crown races.  That’s a good thing. They’re presentation is better and will be more cohesive// Definitely no Triple Crown races for maiden sensation Bind. Despite obvious reasons not to rush him, I don’t think the Preakness or Belmont should have been ruled out.  Bernardini didn’t break his maiden until March 4^th and ended up winning the Preakness//The Factor headed to the Sundland Derby// Top finishers from Southwest and Risen Star most likely planning on next logical preps//Gary West gets the “article of the day” award on his musings on Mo and this past weekend’s stakes action.

Archarcharch takes odd Southwest (video), To Honor And Serve blazes, The Trail loses one and possibly two others

Summary:

What a weird Southwest. Horses crammed on the rail (Caleb’s Posse), horses going 6 wide (Elite Alex), horses getting cut off (J P’s Gusto). On top of that, one of the worst race calls I’ve heard in quite some time// The Trail lost one, maybe three today.  Clubhouse Ride is out, Tiz Blessed is being examined, and indications are that Bind will not be pointed// To Honor and Serve fires a bullet in an unreported work from yesterday//Mucho Macho Man back in Florida with FLA or Louisiana Derby next//Zito not pointing for Preakness (and the 5.5 mil bonus) specifically for Dialed In, who is skipping the Fountain of Youth.

The Factor almost breaks another record, J P morning line favorite, Bind video, Uncle Mo and others work, Future Wager Pool #1 closes

Summary:

The Factor leads the way in San Vicente. It looked as though Sway Away was gaining a length on him each stride// Southwest odds are set with J P’s Gusto the favorite at 9-5// Mucho Macho Man gets a 94 Beyer fig.  Owners report they turned down offers of up to 2.5 million// Speaking of Beyers, maiden winner Bind gets a 105 from yesterday on the same track. No word yet if they will point the colt towards the trail or not. I’ve posted a video link to his race below. Definitely worth a look// Derby future pool closes with ‘All Others’ at 2-1 and Mo at 7-2// Busy workout day. Another awesome work from Stay Thirsty who bested Mo again.

Results:

San Vicente: Winner: The Factor Chart/ Video

Entries:

Southwest: entries and a link to free PPs can be found here

Mucho Macho Man stalks to win Risen Star, CTD Wager hits, Machen no factor, Southwest entries close

Summary:

Mucho Macho Man runs a textbook race to win Risen Star//My CTD Wager returned $343. I was wrong, there was no speed duel, but who cares?// Southwest gets 11 entries.  J P’s Gusto gets all of the attention// Be sure to check out the Star Telegram’s handicapping article on the San Vicente.  They were responsible for leaving out Machen in today’s CTD wager//Nice works from CTD Trackers, especially Soldat

Results:

Risen Star: Mucho Macho Man Wins: Chart/ Video

Entries:

Southwest: entries and a link to free PPs can be found here

Articles:

·       Mucho Macho Man wins Risen Star (Times Picayune) (DRF) (Bloodhorse) (Thoroughbred Times) (Brisnet)

·       Southwest garners top three year olds (Miami Herald)

Risen Star Early Edition: Maragh replaces Coa on Mucho after bad spill// Local articles// CTD Wager

Summary:

Coa took a bad spill yesterday. Maragh will ride Mucho Macho Man// Lots of newspaper features on the Risen Star// // Howard discusses Machen// Gary West thinks Machen just a sprinter// My CTD wager for today’s Risen Star//

Risen Star:

All articles, a link to free PPs, videos, picks and more on the upcoming page here

Articles:

·       Coa fractures neck, Maragh will ride Mucho Macho Man (DRF)

·       Trainer Neil Howard has successful track record (Times Picayune)

·       Risen Star features Derby Hopefuls (Ocala.com)

Derby could have International flavor, Mo and the field drop in futures, The Factor and others will answer questions soon

Summary:

The Derby may get a French runner. Other international runners a possibility//Tim Richey surprised Elite Alex overlooked in futures// Speaking of futures, Uncle Mo is down to 2-1 and “all others” even.  That’s causing some nice odds on others, especially Stay Thirsty (69-1)// Plonk makes a good point on Dutrow// Lots of video today// What’s most exciting for the upcoming weekend is that questions will be answered.  Are The Factor and Machen for real? Will Justin Phillip return to form with blinkers off?

San Vicente entries drawn, Baffert's tough choices, Uncle Mo makes new race nonexistent?

Summary:

As unpredictable as the road to the Derby can be, one thing is for certain- there will be drama.  The horseracing blogs and forums seemed to boil over today with several news items from earlier in the week or month: Baffert kicked Bejarano off The Factor, J P’s Gusto and Jaycito had trainer switches, and Uncle Mo may be entered in a race no one has heard of.  My take on some of this in the “thoughts” section below// The San Vicente drew 9 entries, Jaycito absent- another Baffert choice// Risen Star runners ready to roll// Nice background articles on major sites of ESPN (re; pedigree) and NY Times (re; Uncle Mo)

Entries:

San Vicente entries and a link to PPs can be found on the upcoming page here

Articles:

·       The Factor will face 8 others in San Vicente (Brisnet) (Bloodhorse)

·       Garcia replaces Bejarano on The Factor (Thoroughbred Times)

Future Pool #1. Bet now, Mo money? 3 contender workouts, 3 bullets. Dutrow’s week just got worse

Summary:

The Future pool, released today, shows how much buzz plays into the odds.  The Factor (a maiden winner) opens at 20-1 while Stay Thirsty (graded stakes placed) is 30-1.   I’ve always thought betting the favorite in February is a bad idea.  I still do, but if Mo continues his 2010 form he could be the shortest price derby favorite in quite some time. 9-2 could be almost three times better than what you get on May 7th. Still not doing it// Three contenders work today, all bullets. In so doing, Yankee Passion punched his ticket for the Southwest// Dutrow suspended. Surprised?

Rogue Romance morning line favorite- will it stick? Tapizar out, Jaycito runs the San Vicente early

Summary:

If you read only one article from today, please check out Matt Gardner’s post on the differences in speed figures for Derby preps. Interesting differences and good questions raised on Beyers// Rogue Romance is the favorite in the Risen Star.  Maybe that holds, but something tells me Machen will not stay at 6-1// Jaycito puts in a strong 7 furlong move.  He’ll have to do it all over again Sunday// Todd Jacobs makes some logical points on Derby Future betting in Vegas- stay away from favorites and book the big odds horses before their preps.  Good strategies, but not sure where he’s coming from on betting Leave of Absence- just because he has nowhere to go but up?// Tapizar is off the trail// More ink for J P’s Gusto//

Risen Star set, busy workout day, Machen videos reviewed, The Factor ready to roll, new rankings

Summary:

Ten entered for Risen Star.  I’m excited to see Machen step up, but do have some concern for his recent running style// Tons of works today.  Interesting how much ink J P’s Gusto gets.  I’m sure the soap opera of a training switch helps, but To Honor and Serve is #2 on a lot of rankings and gets no story?// The close of nominations and last weekend’s three preps seems to have kick-started the national talk on Derby. Joe Drape at the New York Times and several others write their inaugural Trail articles and rankings// Silver Medallion may run in Dubai next- if he does should I remove him off the contender list automatically?// It appears all systems go for The Factor in the San Vicente.  Brisnet calls it a bullet, but with only 3 others going 7F we’ll just call it a nice one.

Uncle Mo takes it up a notch, low Beyers from yesterday, next race plans

Summary:

Two of the CTD Top 5 work and in the same time no less//Beyers were low for yesterday’s preps. Brethren 83, Silver Medallion 93, Anthony’s Cross 90. Nonetheless the winners march on.  Anthony will probably wait for Santa Anita Derby, Silver Medallion undecided, and Brethren dependent on how other Pletcher runners perform.  There’s something wrong with that//Early Triple Crown nominations are revealed.

Brethren bandwagon expands, Anthony's Cross and Silver Medallion shock out West, Derby Trail loses a big one

Summary:

So the bandwagon is about to get bigger for Brethren, but who exactly did he beat? Plus only an 83 Beyer fig?//Anthony’s Cross surprises the Robert Lewis while Tapizar looks to be too much of a headcase//Silver Medallion shocks El Camino and gives Asmussen redemption, but I still can’t get excited about that Tapeta surface//Boys at Tosconova off the trail.  Odd that they still don’t really know why//Lots of works including a bullet by Santiva.

All odds set for tomorrow’s Derby Preps, Pletcher confident given the competition, Dialed In returns to the work tab

Summary:  All odds set for tomorrow’s three big Derby Preps// Pletcher seems confident in Brethren despite the bad post//Jaycito will return in San Vicente as well as The Factor most likely//In works, Dialed In returns to the tab.  Decisive Moment puts in his last before the Risen Star and Pluck stays on the grass with new trainer Graham Motion

Brethren on the outside in the Sam Davis, Tapizar may not be primed, Asmussen gets the old Pletcher tag

Summary:

Brethren on the outside in the Sam F. Davis, which brings out 10 total entries//Everyone thinks the Robert Lewis is a one horse race. However there are indications Tapizar is not coming into the race as buttoned up as he was in the Sham// Asmussen the latest target for “never won a major” //Johnny Velazquez gets the mount on To Honor and Serve//J P’s Gusto settles in//Repole blogs//Splash Point wins an graded race in Dubai//

Entries drawn for two big preps, Mandella throws Ten Devils into the fire, Zito reveals more on The Factor

Summary:

The big news of the day is the close of entries for two stepping-stones to the Kentucky Derby.  Comma To The Top draws the rail in the El Camino.  The easier race for them might have just got a little trickier.  Trial by fire- Mandella not only switches Ten Devils to dirt but also talks of altering his running style… in a G2 no less. Plus the Factor still possible for San Vincente, Walden says no rush with Cal Nation, and Mucho Macho Man may bolt from the South Florida circuit to the Fairgrounds.

Comma To The Top ready for more artificial action, Haskin takes aim at J P, six contenders work and more

Peter Miller explains why he’s keeping Comma To The Top on the fake stuff, which is bad for us Derby handicappers.  If you’ve followed the daily trail news recently it’s not hard to figure out who Steve Haskin is aiming his latest piece at.  It will be interesting if team J P’s Gusto 2.0 can prove him wrong.

Three bullets by contenders, Sam F. Davis field comes into focus, trainer plans and more

Summary:

Bullet works by To Honor and Serve, Awesome Patriot and Justin Phillip.  The field for the Sam F. Davis becomes clearer- Brethren steps up.  Updates on trainer plans for Wilkinson, Toby’s Corner, and Casper’s Touch.

King Mo steps it up, bullets already flying for the El Camino, and more

CTD Daily Feed Summary:

Uncle Mo works nicely along with a slew of others including the likely two favorites for the Camino Real.  Nominations and some confirmations for the Camino. A coy response on Twinspired’s next race plans.

Toby's Corner romps, Shackleford advances, Twinspired takes WEBN

CTD Daily Feed Summary:

Toby’s Corner splashes to Whirlaway win.  Shackleford books a spot in the Fountain of Youth. Favored Twinspired wins the WEBN easily. Is it me, or did it look like they were running in quicksand down the stretch? Nice works from Rogue Romance and Pants on Fire while Astrology returns, albeit slowly.

J P gets new digs, Factor no Factor, and Rock Out rocks out

CTD Daily Feed Summary:

Nothing like a trainer change and some nice burning bridge quotes to kick off our new site. Not only does J P’s Gusto have a new trainer but other developments include an update on Boys at Tosconova, Clubhouse Ride skipping a start and buzz horse The Factor possibly being denied a run for the roses. Details below along with PPs for some semi fascinating weekend action: