With 2012 coming to a close, it’s time to
get serious about the 2013 Kentucky Derby. The following is a list of well-known and not-so-well-known
contenders I will be tracking in the coming months. As any fan of the Derby knows, a list made in December is
anything but set in stone with additions and defections occurring daily.
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Key
Races: 1st
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), 1st Champagne S. (G1)
Comments:
The logical 2-year-old
Champion will surely get most of the early ink and online bytes from Derby
watchers. You would think an
undefeated Champion is hard to knock, but critics are aplenty. Many are
skeptical of the field quality in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and the final
speed numbers were substantially lower than other 2012 key juvenile stakes. He fought hard to find a second wind in
the stretch, but would he have held on another furlong? Doubtful.
Next Step: Holy Bull Stakes at
Gulfstream Park on Jan. 26 to give him the option of running three times if
need be, though Pletcher would prefer to run just twice before the Derby-
ideally Holy Bull then Florida Derby on March 30 prior to the Kentucky Derby.
Articles:
Shanghai
Bobby gets to work, with Holy Bull his starting point (DRF)
Race Video: 11/3/12 Breeders Cup Juvenile
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Key
Races: 1st CashCall Futurity
(G1), 1st Nashua S. (G2)
Comments: Made a name for himself when shipping from one
coast to another and winning the CashCall in his third start. The strength of
that cast is questionable for now, but his breeding, running style, and
toughness suggests he warrants serious attention moving forward.
Next
Step: Fountain
of Youth at Gulfstream or Risen Star at Fair Grounds both Feb 23
Articles:
Violence
Holds Promise of Racing Glory (Bloodhorse)
A
Violent pedigree profile (Iron Maidens)
Race Video: 12/15/12
CashCall Futurity
Trainer:
Mark Casse
Key
Races: 1st Kentucky Jockey
Club S. (G2), 1st Iroqouis (G3)
Comments:
The first favorite in the
Derby future book by Wynn Las Vegas, found those odds swell after a no-show
effort at Woodbine and then contract again after sweeping the two graded
juvenile stakes at Churchill. His last victory wasn’t decisive, but showed
grit.
Next
Steps: Sam Davis at Tampa Bay
Downs Feb 2. Tampa Bay Derby likely
afterwards.
Race
Video: 11/26/12
Kentucky Jockey Club S.
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Key
Races: 1st Delta Jackpot
(G3), 2nd Champagne S. (G1)
Comments: The 1 million dollar Delta Jackpot is always a
quirky race, with a mix mash of second level juveniles negotiating a track
unlike anything they will race on elsewhere. Nonetheless, this year’s winner Goldencents could be the
real deal, having proved himself in a prior race with an educational 2nd place
finish in the Champagne at Belmont against Shanghai Bobby.
Next
Step: Sham Stakes at Santa
Anita January 5th.
Race
Video: 11/17/12
Delta Downs Jackpot
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Key
Races: 1st Remsen (G2), 3rd
Iroquois S. (G3), 1st Futurity (G2)
Comments:
Redeemed himself in the Remsen
at Belmont after a sound beating in the Iroquois at Churchill. Has shown
versatility in running style and working through obstacles so can’t be ignored.
However, questions exist about his class, ability at 10 furlongs, and fondness
for the Churchill strip.
Next
Steps: Gotham Stakes at
Aqueduct March 2. Wood Memorial after that likely.
Race
Video: 11/24/12 Remsen S.
Trainer: Chad Brown
Key
Races: 2nd Remsen S. (G2)
Comments:
Appeared shot out of a cannon
when moving from the back of the pack to the front in the Remsen. What was most impressive about that
move and head-bob defeat was the fact the pace was not particularly soft and he
had to alter course from the outside, inside, then outside again. Adversity, dirt, and two turns appear
to be no problem.
Next
Step: Unknown, although Wood
Memorial April 6th has been mentioned as long-range target.
Articles:
Brown
excited about Normandy Invasion’s potential (Brisnet)
Race
Video: 11/24/12 Remsen S.
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Key
Races: 2nd
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), 5th CashCall Futurity (G1)
Comments: Seemed to wake up in the Juvenile, his first and
only start on dirt. Lost out on the top prize by a head and also dealt with
some adversity throughout the race.
He took a step back three weeks later in the CashCall, but all of his
duds have occurred on synthetic.
Next
Step: O’Neill has not
indicated what the next move will be, but a return to Santa Anita is likely. No
published workouts since the CashCall.
Race Video: 11/3/12 Breeders Cup Juvenile
Trainer: Todd
Pletcher
Key
Races: 1st MSW at Aqueduct
Comments:
Finally broke his maiden in his fourth start, but did so in
eye-popping fashion going a mile at Aqueduct in 1:08.61. He earned a Beyer speed figure of 102,
the highest of any juvenile in 2012, and considering his connections must be
taken seriously moving forward. His dam is a graded stakes winner at 10
furlongs, so further stretching out could help.
Next
Step: Unknown
Race
Video: 12/28/12
Aqueduct MSW
Trainer:
Cecil Borel
Key
Races: 1st ALW at Fair Grounds
Comments:
Three-time Kentucky Derby winner Calvin Borel thought enough of this colt to
make a special one race appearance for the recent allowance win. Despite the hype from the barn, it’s
hard to measure how he stacks up against the top tier contenders, but is
definitely one to watch on the Fair Grounds (or Oaklawn) route to the Derby.
Next
Steps: Lecomte S. Jan 19 at the Fair Grounds or Smarty Jones Jan 21 at
Oaklawn.
Articles:
Borel
notches 4,999th win aboard brother’s well-regarded juvenile (Brisnet)
Race Video: 12/28/12
Fair Grounds AOC
Trainer:
Patrick Byrne
Key
Races: 7th Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2), 2nd Iroquois S. (G3),
Comments:
It’s never wise to call a juvenile in your barn “my next Derby
hopeful” in June, but trainer Patrick Byrne did just that. Positively has only
won one race in six tries, but has shown promise by finishing 2nd behind highly
regarded Uncaptured in the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill. Byrne had several excuses for his 7th
in the KY Jockey Club, including blaming himself for trying to squeeze in
another race for 2012. Positively
is a half-brother to Malibu Moon who has sired several Derby entrants.
Next
Step: “I’m going to give him a little break and probably bring him back
sometime in February”- Patrick Byrne
Race Video: 10/28/12 Iroquois S.
Trainer:
Jerry Hollendorfer
Key
Races: 2nd CashCall Futurity (G1), 2nd Real Quiet Stakes
Comments:
Simply didn’t have enough to hold the lead in his last two stakes tries, but
showed toughness especially considering the fractions in the CashCall. Dirt remains a question mark.
Next
Step: Undisclosed race most likely at Santa Anita
Race Video: 12/15/12
CashCall Futurity
Trainer: Bob
Baffert
Key
Race: 3rd CashCall Futurity (G1), 1st Generous Stakes (G3)
Comments:
Raised some eyebrows with a nice strong move on the far outside in the
final turn of the CashCall. Another to worry about on dirt however.
Next
Step: Undisclosed race most likely at Santa Anita
Race Video: 12/15/12
CashCall Futurity
Trainer:
Darrin Miller
Key
Races: Belmont MSW
Comments: Up
until a few days ago, owned the highest Beyer speed figure of any juvenile in
2012. Even more interesting is
that debut win in October was against the new speed leader Revolutionary,
further backing up his figure. Although there are some signs of distance in his
pedigree, it is not entirely comforting they chose to keep him at six furlongs
for his second race Tuesday. Recently purchased by Silverton Farm, which also
means he’s no longer under the care of Michael Mareina.
Next
Step: Spectacular Bid S. at Gulfstream Park January 1st.
Race
Video: 10/28/12
Belmont MSW
Trainer: Bob
Baffert
Key
Races: 1st MSW at Hollywood Park
Comments: It’s
not Derby season without a hyped debut winner from the Baffert barn. Breaking
his maiden by a comfortable 3 1/2 length margin at Hollywood Park, the son of
Tapit immediately had some thinking of Roses come May- especially his confident
trainer. His breeding is top
notch, coming from a mare who has already produced a multiple graded stakes
winner (Zazu), and although Flashback has yet to race on dirt, his numerous
workouts at Santa Anita have been brisk. Recently missed a work with stiffness
however, and will not run in the Sham.
Next
Step: Unknown given recent setback.
Race
Video: 12/8/12
Hollywood Park MSW
Trainer: Bob
Baffert
Key
Races: 1st MSW at Hollywood Park
This $450,000
yearling purchase showed promise with a debut win at Hollywood Park in November.
The quality of that field remains to be seen and the race was on
synthetic. The fact he’s
conditioned by Bob Baffert and likelihood of longer upcoming races will only
help.
Next
Step: Unknown. “We knew he could run.
He got a little sick on me after the race, but he’s back in training
now.”- Bob Baffert
Race
Video: 11/9/12
Hollywood Park MSW
Trainer:
Jerry Hollendorfer
Key
Races: 1st MSW at Hollywood Park
Comments: A
surprise maiden breaker who went off at 16-1, Hear the Ghost was a convincing winner against
10 other foes. Half-brother to two good fillies, including a multiple graded
stakes winner, but none of those siblings won going two turns.
Next
Step: Unknown
Race
Video: 12/15/12
Hollywood Park MSW
Trainer:
Kenneth McPeek
Key
Races: 2nd Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2)
Comments: Only
lost by a head to Uncaptured, a horse many believe to be the best current Derby
prospect. With that race being at
Churchill going two turns, there’s reason for McPeek to be encouraged.
Next
Step: "I'd like to get one race into him before the Fountain of Youth (Feb.
23) and then come back for the Florida Derby (March 30),"- Kenny McPeek.
Articles: McPeek
hopes Frac Daddy blasts off in Florida (Bloodhorse)
Race
Video: 11/26/12
Kentucky Jockey Club S.
Trainer: Dale
Romans
Key
Races: 3rd Kentucky Jockey Club (G2)
Comments: The
stretch duel between Uncaptured and Frac Daddy got most the attention after the
Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, but just behind them was Dewey Square who came
wide and appeared to be running faster in the final strides. Having dominated an allowance four
weeks prior on the same Churchill track at the same distance, I like his
trajectory. Unlike some other top
trainers, Romans will give him every chance to make the Derby.
Next
Step: “We’ll probably aim him for the big two, the Fountain of Youth and
Florida Derby, later in the meet,”- Dale Romans.
Articles: Romans
aiming high with Gulfport, Dewey Square (DRF)
Race
Video: 11/26/12
Kentucky Jockey Club S.
Trainer: Dale
Romans
Key
Races: 1st ALW at Churchill Downs
Comments:
Definitely appears to like Churchill as he finally broke his maiden in his
fourth start and followed it up with a commanding allowance win. Connections
obviously hold high expectations based on his $775,000 price tag. His dam is a multiple graded stakes
winner, but all at sprint distances.
The decision to run in the Jerome at Aqueduct is a little curious,
seeing as the race does not offer Derby points like the originally planned Holy
Bull.
Next
Step: Jerome Stakes Jan 5 at Aqueduct
Articles: Romans
aiming high with Gulfport, Dewey Square (DRF)
Race
Video: 11/24/12
Churchill Downs AOC
Trainer: Todd
Pletcher
Key
Races: 1st MSW at Saratoga
Comments:
Training steadily for a return to action since his easy maiden score in August.
Might take a race or two to get back on his game from such a long layoff, but
shows the right pedigree and connection signs.
Next
Step: Allowance in February
Race
Video: 8/4/12
Saratoga MSW
Trainer: Bob
Baffert
Key
Races: 5th Breeders Cup Juvenile (G1), 1st Front Runner S. (G1),
Comments:
Makes this list with great trepidation. His dominating victory in the Front
Runner made him an immediate Derby prospect but he subsequently laid an egg in
the Breeders’ Cup a month later. Baffert says he needs to bulk up and will look
for something in March, but that long of a vacation always raises concerns on
fitness come May.
Next
Step: “You’ll see him in March”- Bob Baffert
Race
Video: 9/29/12 Front
Runner S.
Trainer: Jane
Cibelli
Key
Races: 1st Inaugural S.
Comments:
Undefeated in three starts, but yet to go farther than six furlongs. Steps up to a mile Tuesday against his
most competitive opposition yet. Has shown the ability to rate and trainer
Cibelli loves his long stride.
Next
Step: Gulfstream Park Derby Jan 1.
Articles: Undefeated
Purple Egg eyeing Gulfstream Park Derby (Brisnet)
Race
Video: 12/1/12
Inaugural S.
Kentucky
Derby Related Articles and Rankings:
2013
Kentucky Derby Prep Horses To Watch (All Horse Racing)
Taking
an early look at Derby underdogs (The Lowell Sun)
Kentucky
Derby 2013: Top 20 (Bloodhorse Blog)
Pletcher
holds all the aces for Kentucky Derby (Racing Post)
Ranking
the latest 2013 Kentucky Derby contenders (Bleacher Report)
McPeek
thinking Classics for Frac Daddy (Brisnet)
Ranking
the Derby contenders (ESPN)
Kentucky
Derby and Preakness winner Gutierrez keen to start fresh (The Globe and
Mail)
Dates
set for 2013 Derby future wagers (Bloodhorse)
