A
field of 11 will line up in the Palm Beach (G3) Sunday at Gulfstream, with
several owners and trainers hoping they can move to Derby points races next
time out. Ken Ramsey thinks Charming Kitten could be a Derby starter, while
Gary Contessa will point Rydilluc to the Spiral (G3) if all goes well// More
previews and picks rolled in for upcoming weekend stakes races. Links can be
found below// He’s Had Enough, recently fifth in the Fountain of Youth (G2),
will be shipped to Dubai to try the UAE Derby. Trainer Doug O’Neill didn’t
mention whether a trip back to the Kentucky Derby is certain if all goes well,
but one would assume that’s the plan// more…
Entries
were drawn for five Saturday races that could each carry Kentucky Derby
implications. The obvious headliner is the Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct, which will
award 50 Derby points to the winner. That amount will most likely guarantee a
spot in the Kentucky Derby gate. Overanalyze is the best on paper, but will
start from the far outside in a 12 horse field. Previews and a link to free PPs
can be found below// Departing, scratched from last weekend’s Risen Star (G2)
due to a bad post position is going with option B in the Texas Heritage Stakes
at Sam Houston// The Gazebo Stakes at Oaklawn features a small but intriguing
cast including impressive maiden winner Titletown Five, undefeated Colorado
bred Get Happy Mister, and the former hyped allowance winner Malibu High// The
John Battaglia Stakes at Turfway serves as a prep for the Spiral (G3) and drew
horses that have raced in Arkansas, Louisiana, Illinois, New York, Florida, California
and its own backyard// It’s tough seeing any of the contenders in the Swale
(G3) being able to stretch out on the trail and make their way to Louisville
for the Derby. It was already reported that Merit Man will scratch due to the
post// Opening odds were announced for Pool #2 of the Kentucky Derby Future
Wager. ‘All others’ are favored
again at 3-1 with Verrazano and Super Ninety Nine the 10-1 co-favorites for
individual selections. Overanalyze (15-1), Vyjack (30-1), and Titletown Five
(30-1) are particularly susceptible to fluctuating odds following their
performances this Saturday// A nice article from Paul Moran at ESPN on the
“mystique” of the Kentucky Derby with fantastic observations from novelist John
Steinbeck when he attended the race in 1956// There was a small outcry over a
DRF story explaining the reasoning behind the Beyer speed figures given to last
Saturdays stakes races at the Fair Grounds. Once you actually read the article it
seems to make sense that final time alone does not tell the whole story// more…
"GP alw winner Capo
Bastone headed to Rebel 3-16, with John Velazquez to ride, reports Aron Wellman
of owner Eclipse Thoroughbreds"- Jay Privman via Twitter
“Trainer
Bob Hess Jr. says Merit Man almost certain to scratch out of Saturday's Swale
after drawing post 2 ini 13 horse field” - Mike Welsch via Twitter
Owner David Wilkenfeld
seems to be enjoying the ride along the Derby trail so far with Vyjack. He was
instrumental in the decision to switch riders from Cornelio Velasquez to Joel
Rosario for the upcoming Gotham (G3) on Saturday. Wilkenfeld believes Rosario
is better with handling aggressive horses like Vyjack// Sunbean could be on the
outside looking in again if the Louisiana Derby (G2) overfills. The son of
Brahms still hasn’t raced in open company, which goes against him when entering
any of 3-year-old graded stakes at the Fair Grounds// Oxbow would likely make
the Louisiana Derby (G2) field, and trainer D. Wayne Lukas revealed he could be
forced to also run in the Arkansas Derby (G1) two weeks later if the colt needs
more points for the Kentucky Derby. That’s an aggressive game plan asking for
three races totaling 3 1/2 miles in a five-week span// There’s a pretty damning
article from the Examiner on Todd Pletcher “running many talented Derby
prospects into the ground”. Not only is the piece disjointed and hard to
follow, but it is extremely light on proof// A post on the TwinSpires Blog is
both properly validated and more positive on Todd Pletcher and the Kentucky
Derby. Ed DeRosa argues there’s another side of the 1-for-31 story and backs it
up with probability percentages and general common sense// Updated future odds
from Wynn Las Vegas were released with Flashback a solid favorite at 8-1
followed by Verrazano 11-1 and Revolutionary 12-1. Links to the full list and
PPs can be found below// Uncaptured continued his workout regimen with a five-furlong
breeze in preparation for his sophomore debut in the Spiral (G3) at Turfway
Park March 23// more…
While the top four
finishers of Saturday’s Risen Star will most likely continue on to the
Louisiana Derby (G2), fifth place Normandy Invasion will go next in the Wood
Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct where trainer Chad Brown says he has raced his best. Jennie
Rees reported the colt will get a new rider in the Wood, although a name has
yet to be announced. Owner Rick Porter is convinced Normandy Invasion was “so
much the best horse” in the Risen Star. You can excuse an owner’s blind faith
in his horse, but we also know breaking well from the gate and tractability
play just as much of a role in winning a race than a good closing run. The
latter trait especially is difficult to train, and it was apparent Normandy
Invasion was a handful for a good portion of the race// Rosie Napravnik may
have to make a tough decision on where to race March 30. Palace Malice will
most likely return to the Fair Grounds for the Louisiana Derby (G2) along with
other stakes horses Napravnik rode this past Saturday, however that’s the same
day Shanghai Bobby is scheduled to run in the Florida Derby (G1) at
Gulfstream// Todd Pletcher had to postpone scheduled workouts for his Florida
string Sunday due to the track having too much moisture. Conditions were better
Monday and several of his charges zipped through their breezes. Verrazano was
the quickest of 38 going five furlongs in 59:21. For complete times on Shanghai
Bobby, Revolutionary, Park City, Delhomme, and
Overanalyze see below// Apparently trainer Shug McGaughey didn’t know the 50
points earned in Saturday’s Risen Star were likely enough to make the Kentucky
Derby until Jennie Rees told him so. I know the point system is new and
McGuaghey prides himself on being old school, but I would think any trainer with a prominent 3-year-old
would do a little homework immediately following a victory in a key Derby prep.
In any case, McGaughey is still leaning towards running in the Florida Derby
next as opposed to shipping to New York for the Wood// In case you missed the
list of probable runners for this Saturday’s Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct they are
Grade 2 winners Overanalyze, Vyjack, and Honorable Dillon along with
Escapefromreality, Siete de Oros, Ore Pass, Elnaawi, Sky Captain, West Hills
Giant, Alcolite, and Champion Boy// On the West Coast trainer Bob Baffert sent
out a trio of Kentucky Derby prospects for morning works at Santa Anita.
Flashback led the charge as usual, with a bullet move going six furlongs in
1.11. Stablemate Den’s Legacy was just behind that while Power Broker continued
his steady workout routine going four furlongs in a fast 47:80// A new CTD Top 5 with
Super Ninety Nine making the cut// more…
"Will Take Charge
galloped a mile and a half under wraps second set after the break Monday at
#Oaklawn; pointing for Rebel, said Lukas"- Mary Rampellini via Twitter
"Frak Daddy back to
track today. Throat looks much better and we have some forward motion. We have
plenty of time to get him ready for Derby"- Kenny McPeek via Twitter
CTD Analysis: Many critics are anxious to knock the Risen Star seeing as a 135-1
shot crossed the wire first. There was also nothing visually impressive with
the top six finishers all ending up within 4 lengths of each other. Add the
fact the race was held at the Fair Grounds, and many have already drawn a line
through it.
There is another side to
the coin. The speed figures were not slow- 95 Beyer and 99 BRIS- and you could
make the argument the overall Risen Star field was actually stronger than the
Fountain of Youth when looking at prior speed and accomplishments. The trip Ive
Struck A Nerve endured starting last of the pack, pinballing from the outside
to the rail and back to the outside, was especially remarkable considering the
crowded field and slow fractions. Whether
or not he can duplicate that effort in the Louisiana Derby (G2) remains to be
seen, but it was the kind of tough and diligent performance you must keep in
mind when combing through this year’s Derby past performances.
Runner-up Code West missed
out on the top prize by a nose and displayed determination when finding a
second wind along the rail. He did appear to have the most ideal trip by
starting quickly on the inside and being among the mild pace on the frontend.
Palace Malice, who rounded out the trifecta, took a lot of dirt behind horses
yet didn’t back down when an opportunity to split horses presented itself. He
was a little erratic in the stretch, which may have cost him the race. Oxbow
was in a prime spot into the stretch, but simply ran out of gas. He did race wide for most of the 1 1/16
miles, but you have to wonder if he really wants the added distance.
The favorite Normandy
Invasion had a terrible trip most of the way, starting with a slow break and
bobbled start. It was nice to see him settle in along the backstretch and get
to work late, but his lack of interest in the beginning stages of
almost all of his races does not bode well for the future.
CTD Analysis: For now it seems the legacy of the 2013 edition of the Fountain Of
Youth will unfortunately be the derailment of the once undefeated colt
Violence. The Todd Pletcher trainee was very game off a two month layoff finishing
2nd after sitting close to a wicked pace. The following day it was revealed
Violence suffered a fractured sesamoid and is officially off the Derby trail.
HRTV reported he is retired from racing, however no other outlets have
corroborated that development.
What to make of the winner Orb?
Some were quick to point out he took advantage of the blistering pace and won’t
see that kind of setup in the future, but you can’t fault him for running a
winning race. Considering it was his stakes debut against a strong cast, the
Beyer speed figure came back a very respectable 97, and the opening fractions
of the Kentucky Derby are often torrid, I find no reason to ignore his performance.
Trainer Shug McGaughey has not decided where to go next. If he chooses the
logical Florida Derby (G1) we’ll get a good read on Orb against perhaps the
strongest field prior to the Kentucky Derby.
It was more than seven
lengths back to third place finisher Speak Logistics, and that’s probably as
close as he or any of the also-rans will be if they face more top Derby
contenders along the trail. Majestic Hussar could learn to harness some of his
early energy, but that’s easier said than actually training him to do so. He
most likely doesn’t want to go farther in distance either.
"Departing to be
scratched fro Risen Star. To go next week in HOU stakes"- Marcus Hersch
via Twitter
“Frac Daddy slow progress
on throat ulcer issue. Behind Eight Ball a bit. Schedule may point him to
@Turfway Mar23rd. Assuming all goes well”- Kenny McPeek via Twitter
Tons of new articles and
handicapper picks for Saturday’s Risen Star (G2) and Fountain of Youth (G2). Links
can be found below under the race headings// While Verrazano was the narrow favorite
after Pool #1 closed for the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, Las Vegas currently
has Flashback as the most likely to wear the Roses// Recent maiden winner
Demonic had a hiccup in training, but is still hopefully headed to the San
Felipe (G2)// Mac The Man, winner of a minor stakes at Turfway will bypass the
next race in the Northern Kentucky circuit and train up to the Spiral (G3)
March 23// The newly named Mine That Bird Stakes at Sunland will be held Saturday,
with the race serving as a prep for the Sunland Derby (G3). Dry Summer was
installed as the favorite, but his stakes resume isn’t what you would call
stellar. He finished 4th of 5 in the Sham (G3), 17 lengths behind winner
Goldencents, and before that tried the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) where
he finished 11th of 14// A possible key allowance race occurred at Gulfstream
Thursday where impressive maiden winner Integrity was the overwhelming
favorite. The Chad Brown trained colt was part of a speed duel and finished
second by a length behind Divine Ambition. The winner finished 6th in his prior
race in the Sam Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay. Given that performance and the fact he
took advantage of a hot pace Thursday, there’s probably not much to get excited
about in terms of the Kentucky Derby// more…
There is a good
possibility neither of Al Stall’s runners will enter the gate for the Risen
Star (G2) on Saturday. Sunbean will most likely go in the undercard Gentilly
Stakes on the grass, while Stall mentioned there needs to be quite a few
scratches to bring Departing closer to the rail from his outside post// The
Fountain of Youth (G2) is also guaranteed a scratch with news that Sky Captain
will instead go in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at Turfway or Gotham (G3)
at Aqueduct March 2. Trainer Mark Casse didn’t like the 7 post due to the speed
bias and short run to the first turn at Gulfstream// Casse also mentioned that
Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) winner Uncaptured is doing very well and will start
next in the Spiral (G3) at Turfway. Uncaptured breezed four furlongs at Ocala
Training Center yesterday and Casse said he galloped out another furlong all in
1:00// Next race plans are already set for some Southwest (G3) runners who had
to deal with the mud flying behind dominating winner Super Ninety Nine Monday. Always
in a Tiz, who was found to have a lung infection following his fifth in the
race, will point for the Rebel as will 9th place finisher Texas Bling// The
Rebel will also get undefeated Park City, whose honest owner said “Derby Fever”
played a part in the aggressive placement for the recent allowance winner//
more…
